A chill wind starting to blow through UK fandom finances?

Anyone who hasn't been asleep for the past few months will have noticed that all is not well economically in the UK. I don't want to get into partisan political stuff here, so I'll simply note that energy bills are generally expected to go through the roof this winter, with inflation now heading strongly upwards as well. What does this mean? Well, for one thing, a lot of people are going to have a lot less money to spare on fun things than they'd like. If you're reading this, it's an easy guess what "fun things" might include for you.

Since I'm about My Little Pony on this blog, let's consider what that means for British Pony fans. First, it probably means buying less merch. Okay, the range of G5 official merch in our shops is really pretty poor anyway, borderline pathetic in the case of what's getting into supermarkets – but there is some around. And though it's not physical merch, there's also the question of Netflix. A standard subscription is now £10.99 a month. If you only use the service to watch MLP, that's absolutely not a nothing sum.

I expect there to be a knock-on effect on fan-made merch as well. I already know of people who used to be willing to spend say £50-100 on a piece of art from time to time who are now wondering whether they can really justify continuing doing that once their new gas bills hit the mat. The really expensive stuff like big plushies or ponysuits even more so.¹ Since we now have to pay chunky VAT and/or import duties from EU sellers, not the case in the first few years of the G4 fandom, I think these sales may be especially vulnerable.
¹ Okay, ponysuits are usually one-off purchases, but plushies a bit less so

Right, past the break I will get to the subject of conventions.

An inescapable fact is that cons are expensive. Since I started going to them in 2013, all of hotel room charges, train fares and restaurant prices have risen substantially when comparing like with like. Even a "cheap" con weekend, unless you're lucky enough to live close enough to the venue to commute in each day, now means a hit of several hundred pounds. That's substantially more than the cost of a very nice pre-made plush from a highly regarded UK maker (eg ~£200 from Sewpoke).

Let's look at UK PonyCon, because it's a great event and I love it and want it to succeed. In 2016, a standard (non-discounted), no-frills Adult Weekend ticket for the event cost £32. This year, the equivalent ticket is £46 – a rise of 43.75% in seven years. To be honest, I think UKPC has done a really good job in keeping prices down as much as possible, but the fact remains that since (until very recently) UK inflation has been extremely low, the con has become substantially more expensive in real terms to attend than it was in 2016.

And so we come to the looming crunch. This autumn and winter, and quite probably throughout next year, a lot of people are going to have to cut back their discretionary spending. And when a convention costs as much as a holiday on its own, it's going to be a very vulnerable target. It gets worse when you consider that the events themselves will be facing higher bills. If they don't pass some of those on to attendees, they won't break even and can't run. But if they pass too much of those on, not enough people will buy tickets and so they also can't run.

It's all very well saying, "Oh, people will always put Pony first" – but I think that would be a dangerous assumption, especially with FiM now done and dusted. There are much cheaper ways to come together over MLP than conventions. Not that any of us wanted the Covid break, but it introduced virtual events to the mainstream of the fandom, and with no hotel or travel costs to worry about those are enormously cheaper than the in-person variety.¹ People were also restricted to online buying of merch, and I think more of us are now comfortable with that.
¹ In some ways our fandom's equivalent of the WFH revolution. We'll go back a bit, but not all the way

Are there any good aspects to consider? A few, though only a few. For one, we've now gone through a cycle of UK conventions and they've worked. UK PonyCon last autumn, for example, was excellent and enjoyable. Griffish Isles also went well, by all accounts. Unlike last autumn, Covid restrictions at UK/European cons are largely a thing of the past.¹ That means a little less bureaucracy, which always helps. The really big announcements, such as Andrea Libman attending UKPC, are definitely still generating excitement, too. So it's not all gloom, no.
¹ For example, here's GalaCon 2022's page. Recommendations, but no mandates

There are smaller in-person conventions, such as the new-last-year Festival of Friendship – but given that event's awkward location (Tadley, well away from any large towns or cities) that isn't really going to be a particularly low-cost option either. Meets on the other hand are generally far less expensive as accommodation usually isn't an issue and there are usually no fees beyond buying something from the pub/café you're using. I suspect informal meets may be quite resilient to the coming economic storm, because – bluntly – they're cheap.

So I don't think the UK fandom is going to collapse and disappear this winter. I don't actually think conventions will either. But, and I'm sure they're well ahead of me on this, I do think expensive events – and vendors selling expensive merch – are going to have a tough time. Because if someone bought three plushies and went to three cons in 2022, but estimates they can only afford two or even one of each in 2023, then... well, the implication is obvious. It's about to become an even tougher world for Pony businesses than it already is.