What lies ahead for the brony fandom?

Nethesem (yes, the BUCK guy) does an interesting YouTube series called Ask a Sane Brony, and recently he posted a video called "Welcome to the Post-Fandom". It's worth watching in itself (it's only seven minutes long), but it also finally gave me the nudge I needed to make this post – one I've been thinking about making for quite some while. I'm not just copying what Nethesem did, because what would be the point? Instead, this is my musing on where the fandom goes (or, at least, may go) from here.

I think most people would agree that the brony fandom is now well past its youthful, exuberant stage. We'll never again see the sort of "ponies everywhere!" stuff that you got four years ago – which, in some cases, is probably a good thing. The fandom is smaller than it used to be, and I suspect that this trend will continue, though it probably won't accelerate too much until Hasbro finally decides to pull the plug on Friendship is Magic and G4 as a whole, which could be years away yet.

The age of the super-convention may also be beginning to pass. It wouldn't surprise me if BronyCon's relentless growth in attendance numbers ended pretty soon, and here in Europe – where things have always been more marginal – we've already lost BronyDays and BUCK will not be returning after this year. The future would seem to lie in smaller, cheaper events such as BronyScot. (And in some ways UK PonyCon, though that's a special case, being all-gens and long-established.)

In Nethesem's video, he made a very good point about supporting artists who've branched out from pony (Aviators, for example), as well as reminding us that you don't have to stop meeting your friends just because you no longer share the interest that brought you together. As he also said, there's no reason to look back on your time in this fandom with embarrassment. Remember it fondly, as a time when MLP and bronies were important to you. It's a part of your life, so embrace it.

But I'm concerned here with the continuing pony fandom, and the fans who don't leave it. This fandom won't ever disappear entirely. Fandoms far smaller and older than ours are still active – on a smaller scale, yes, but they're there. And we have a major advantage over many of them. Nobody makes new episodes of Fawlty Towers any more, but there's no way Hasbro will drop the My Little Pony franchise entirely. Ponies will endure: maybe not G4 ponies, but ponies nevertheless.

In some ways, there's actually more going on now than there was in the early days. We're finally getting our pony feature film next year. Hasbro has really stepped up its game on first-party merch with the recently announced "Guardians of Harmony" range. There are licensed books like The Art of Equestria. The show is well established on free-to-air TV here in the UK, which it certainly wasn't in 2012. You might almost say that official stuff is filling some of the holes left by departing fan creators.

My own small contributions to this fandom have mainly been in the form of fiction. While there are signs of the same "branching out" I mentioned earlier, with some authors gradually shifting their emphasis towards original writing, the ponyfic scene remains reasonably vigorous. Around 200 completed stories a week are being published on Fimfiction: down from its peak, but still a number many fandoms would kill for. I know I still have plenty of ponyfics I want to publish before I'm done with it.

If, indeed, I'm ever done with it. I've said before that I feel the ultimate fate for the brony fandom is to take its place alongside the other strands that go to make up the wider My Little Pony fandom, and I see no reason to change that view. If some G1 fans can still be involved three decades after they became fans, why shouldn't some of us still be around in 2040? Friendship is Magic has sufficient intrinsic quality that I'd be more surprised if there weren't people watching it – some for the first time – all those years on.

Some may say that I've presented a very optimistic view of the future of the brony fandom. To which I reply: yes, I have, but I think it's also a realistic one. There's never truly been anything like this fandom before, and I think enough people will retain an affection for it that it will remain alive, albeit diminished in size and volume, pretty much indefinitely. Many, perhaps most, will reach the stage where MLP no longer speaks to them, and will leave the fandom behind – but here's the thing: not everyone will.

As Forest Rain sang almost four years ago now: "Do not be afraid: we will never fade." Not completely. There will always be a fandom.