Whither Pony conventions in 2020?

Note: This post deals with physical conventions. The future for online cons such as PonyFest is very interesting, but it's one I'll perhaps deal with another time.

I thought about writing this a few days ago, but stepped back because I wasn't personally involved in any cons and so wasn't sure I had enough knowledge to make the post worthwhile. But then I thought, no, I should write it because I'm not involved in running cons. That means I don't have any of the NDAs and contractual restrictions they do, and I don't have to negotiate with venues and insurance companies. That being so, I can talk freely about what I'm expecting to happen, not merely about what's been announced for certain. Less specialist knowledge, but also fewer restrictions. So here we go.

First up, we already know that 2020 is not going to be a normal year. Several major conventions have already been postponed until later in the year or cancelled entirely, BABSCon and GalaCon being among the most prominent. There will most assuredly be more. I think we should always bear in mind the immense difficulties facing con organisers at the moment, and not complain that they haven't all announced exact plans this very minute. Any well run con – and thankfully in this fandom that means most of them – will be talking a lot behind the scenes and not doing its negotiations over Twitter.

Lots more waffling to come!

A big problem I can see looming is for cons may well arrive later this year, when (we all hope) government-mandated restrictions have been loosened but not removed entirely. What is a convention to do if there is official advice against large gatherings but not an actual prohibition on them? It's only half the story to say, "If they cancel absent an actual government order, that's the end of the con" – because if that con goes ahead and there's an outbreak there that leads to widespread sickness or worse, that's also the end of the con. Social distancing is extremely difficult in con conditions. I suspect this dilemma is preying on a lot of con-runners' minds.

Like any other non-essential business, conventions will also need to bear in mind that a lot of people will have a lot less disposable income than they imagined. And, bluntly, spending £400 or whatever on a con weekend is going to have to take second place to getting the basics of life, employment, mortgage/rent and so on back in some kind of order. It's not at all hard to find people (I know some) who are already saying that they just don't think they'll be able to afford a full-scale con trip until 2021. That's inevitably going to affect attendee numbers. Outside the US, there won't be much of an "I would have gone to SpringCon but now I'll go to AutumnCon" effect either, as most countries don't have multiple events.

Talking of which, since this is a UK-based blog, let's have a look at the UK. We normally have three MLP conventions a year. However, just yesterday BronyScot announced that there would be no 2020 iteration. The wording of their tweet suggests this break was already planned, in much the same way that BUCK 2015 did not exist. UK PonyCon (October) has put out a pretty solid holding statement, as I'd expect from them. The other British convention, Griffish Isles, also has a holding statement up, albeit not across all platforms.

That said, from an entirely unofficial potential attendee's point of view, I will state categorically that I am convinced that the chance of GI going ahead on its scheduled dates (9-10 May) is zero. There is simply no way it can happen. We may not even have emerged from lockdown by that weekend – and even if we have, I cannot see an indoor gathering of several hundred people in a major city centre being permitted. There wouldn't be time for anyone to prepare, in any case. Sooner or later, the con organisers will have to bite the bullet and either cancel or postpone. I hope their venue is as co-operative on this as BABSCon's seems to have been.

We should also consider the longer term. Just going back to 2019 practice in 2021 may not be possible. For example, restrictions on total numbers at public (well, semi-public in this case) gatherings might easily continue into next year, or be reintroduced at short notice. As a hypothetical example, con orgs might be told, "Yes, you can go ahead, but until further notice you must not have over 500 people in the venue, including guests and staff." What effect would that have on the finances of even the best-run conventions? I hope it doesn't come to this, but there has to be a non-zero possibility that our fandom will never return to the convention setup we had up until a few months ago.

I'll end on a personal note. As someone who is in a vulnerable category (being diabetic) I will need to be especially careful even once I start returning to social life. Although I have not yet made my mind up for sure, I think there is a strong possibility that I will skip UK PonyCon this year even if it goes ahead as scheduled. I can definitely imagine a world where I'm willing to take the small risk of spending an afternoon with half a dozen friends in a quiet, uncrowded café, but not the significantly larger risk of spending a weekend with several hundred people (many complete strangers) in a large, crowded convention centre. Indeed, I suspect it's the resumption of local meets, not big cons, that will signify fans being able to mingle in person again.